The Public Is Even More Pessimistic About

I Love South American Food, And I Haven't Really Been Down There. I Really Need A Vacation.

Plenty Of Pundits Have Really High Iqs, But They Don't Have Any Discipline In How They Look At The World, And So It Leads To A Lot Of Bullshit, Basically.

Voters' Memories Will Fade Some.

I Think A Lot Of Journal Articles Should Really Be Blogs.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.